Friday, August 30, 2019

ITM %

According to Michael Acevedo:
ITM is the frequency a player cashes and is in the money. For MTTs, this number (excluding bounty tournaments) is usually around 15-18% for winning players.
Modern Poker Theory: Building an unbeatable strategy based on GTO principles
It looks like I'm good enough to be considered a 'winning player' in some of the freerolls I routinely play in.  (Given no cost of entry, its very likely lots of folks are not trying their best and so a high ITM % can be discounted.)

As of August 30, 2019,  here are some of my stats:

SiteNameITM %
888 NJ$50 Daily Freeroll41.43%
888 NJ$100 Daily Freeroll33.96%
WSOJ NJ$100 Daily Freeroll26.67%
PartyPoker NJ$20 Freeroll24.44%
PartyPoker NJ$50 Freeroll21.24%
PartyPoker NJ$10 Freeroll21.21%
WSOJ NJ$25 Daily Freeroll19.23%
888 NJ$20 Freebies Freeroll9.38%

This is from website Poker Prolabs (retrieved at 6pm EST).  Look yourself up! 😉

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

CeV, $EV and EV

Confused between the differences between these three?

Here's a 2+2 thread that defines the terms and gives examples.  The key definitions (but the rest is interesting as well):
EV = expected value …
Cev stands for 'Chip Expected Value' it shows your expectation (profit or loss for each play) based on the number of tournament chips won or lost.
$ev stands for 'Dollar Expected Value', this shows your expectation (again profit / loss) based on your current prize pool equity. That is the amount in dollars that your chip stack is currently worth based on your average chance of finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd or in the non-paying spot of 4th.
2+2 Thread
Additional links:

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

The Next 20K

The next 20K in hands.  Getting better.

RatingCumulative# of HandsCumulative
Day 4016.4115.31112540939
Day 4112.915.24100041939
Day 4220.0115.34100742946
Day 4317.0815.39100143947
Day 4414.7415.37100044947
Day 4515.0715.36100045947
Day 4611.3615.28100046947
Day 4714.0515.25100047947
Day 4814.4815.24100048947
Day 4915.715.25100049947
Day 5013.1815.22100050947
Day 5112.4715.16100051947
Day 5221.6515.3100052947
Day 5311.0915.24101053957
Day 541415.21100054957
Day 5518.7615.27100155958
Day 5612.0215.21100056958
Day 5712.5815.16110058058
Day 5818.7915.22104059098
Day 5910.5715.14100060098
Day 6010.415.07100061098

Monday, August 26, 2019

Is Online Poker Rigged?

The following information is a touch old (from 2016 & 2011), but interesting nonetheless.
PokerStars analysis focused on a sample of 1 million downloaded hands and 69,663 pre-flop all-ins from Sit n Go tournaments. Actual expectation would suggest that 35,748 of these hands would win. In reality, 35,850 of these hands won, meaning an actual deviation of +102. …
PartyPoker research looked at a sample of 1.26 million hands, breaking down 11,984 hands from $50NL full ring cash game tables. Actual expectation predicted that 6,267 of these hands would win. In reality, 6,198.5 hands won, meaning an actual deviation of -68. …
OnGame’s investigation studied a sample of 1.42 million hands, looking at 12,306 hands from $30NL short handed cash game tables. Actual expectation assumed that 6,457 would win. In reality, 6,454.5 hands won leaving an actual deviation of -2.5. Pokerstrategy.com

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Think Carefully About Turning Middle Pair into Bluff

Bet for value (i.e., when you think you have the best hand & you think you can get worse hands to call).  Bet for bluff (i.e., when you think you can get better hands to fold).  But think carefully about betting hands that may not be the best (& may not be the worst) -- that is, hands that have showdown value.

Here's some of the logic:

Let's imagine a world where you only bet for value.  Your opponents are eventually going to catch on and stop calling so much.  Not ideal.  What's the fix?  Bluffing.  As noted by Hunter Cichy:
[I]f you're struggling to get value on the river, its because you aren't bluffing enough. If you bet half the post, you're offering Villain 3-to-1 on his money. He needs to be right 25% of the time to make the call. … The trick to increasing your river EV is to bluff sufficiently so that Villain has incentive to defend with most of his showdown value hands. Advanced Concepts in No-Limit Hold'em: A Modern Approach to Poker Analysis
Why not bluff your showdown value hands?  Well, those hands already have equity and so if they can make it to the river, they have a chance of winning.  Middle pair can reasonably be a showdown value hand.

If you're getting +EV for your value hands and  +EV on your showdown value hands (through pot control and judicious calling), where else can you extract value?  The junk hands you have left. (This is not to say you should also raise, but that's where your bluffing focus should generally be.)

Here's an article on the topic: https://newonlinepoker.com/dont-bluff-with-showdown-value/

Cardchats.com Anniversary Celebration

Lots of freerolls available (if the poker site is available in your region).  Have a look!  💵

Sunday, August 18, 2019

Final Table Report - 8/18/19

Another first place finish.  Woo! 😉

Non-Cash Winnings
DateSiteNamePositionFieldWinnings
8/18/19888 NJ$20 Freebies Freeroll140$5 tourney tix

Added to my trophy case.

Friday, August 9, 2019

Final Table Report - 8/9/19

A first place finish.  Feels great! 😉😎

Cash Winnings
DateSiteNamePositionFieldWinnings
8/9/19SportsBetting$200 Freeroll182$60.00

Added to my trophy case.

Thursday, August 1, 2019

The Next 20K of Hands

The next 20K hands. 


RatingCumulative# of HandsCumulative
Day 2120.5216.74107521642
Day 2210.5716.47100022642
Day 2314.3116.38100023642
Day 249.6416.13100624648
Day 2519.3616.17100025648
Day 2612.8616.14100026648
Day 2713.2216.05100027648
Day 2815.0916.02100028648
Day 2912.3515.93100129649
Day 3012.2515.8107530724
Day 3112.8215.71102531749
Day 3211.7215.6100032749
Day 3315.1715.59103533784
Day 3414.1815.55100034784
Day 3514.6515.51100535789
Day 3614.5315.48102536814
Day 3711.3615.35100037814
Day 3812.815.3100038814
Day 3914.4915.28100039814
Day 4016.4115.31112540939