Thursday, October 3, 2019

Is Postle a cheat?

In my opinion, the evidence appears to be mounting.  Lots of interesting content out there.

See, for example [language warning]:  Doug Polk AnalysisAndreas Froehli Poker.  A summary article is here.

The hands I've seen look pretty damning--but it's possible there's some type of selection bias.  According to this article, Mike Postle said the following:
I’m having a third party compile a large amount of hands disproving this. I play reckless, high-variance poker. While most decisions are correct, I’m wrong often too.
It would be good to get someone doing a systematic study of the issue.  If I had to bet, however, I'd put money on something untoward going on.

Here is a list of ten suspicious hands:
  1. Bluff Catches with Kings Despite Multiple Players Behind Him 
  2. Calls Two Preflop All-Ins With Five-High 
  3. Floats Five-High Three Ways, Bluffs All In on Turn 
  4. Induces a Bluff, Then Reshoves Weak Pair on River 
  5. Check-Calls Down Against Two Players, Donk-Shoves River When Everyone Misses 
  6. Cold-Calls Six-High Against a Four-Bet, Gets 440 Big Blinds in While Ahead on Turn 
  7. Loses the Minimum After River Cooler 
  8. Executes Huge Re-Bluff in Large Pot With Players Behind 
  9. Barrels All In With Air Against Two Check-Calls on Dangerous Board 
  10. Gets in Second Pair After Huge Preflop Action Multiple Ways

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